When you are playing single table tournaments with 10 players behind the table, then mathematically your chance of getting the overall best hands during the tournament is 9 to 1 or 10%. It is true regardless of your skill level. Good cards will not be dealt to you just because you are more skillful than others. It is called luck factor. However your skill level determines how successful you are able to play the cards you are given. I’m pretty convinced the best poker player in the world cannot consistently win every single tournament with 9 other players who barely know the rules of the game. Even Phil Hellmuth has said that if no luck factor was involved, he would win every single time.
Now suppose you are playing a tournament with 1000 participants. The chance you will get the best cards at best situations is 999 to 1. Even if you are the best poker player in the world, the chance you will win the tournament is pretty slim. That is the reason why we often see amateur poker players win biggest poker tournaments in the world.
If you have decided to stick with a certain limit to the tournament buy-in and you are fairly certain you have an average or above average skill level compared to the rest of the players at the same level, you can reasonably expect to play 999 tournaments with 1000 participants without winning one single time.
Why is it important to know that? Well, first you must make sure you are emotionally capable of not winning much for an extended period of time and secondly you must be sure you can financially allow this to happen. Of course not winning a tournament doesn’t necessarily mean you will not win any money, but that the variation is much bigger than in cash games. If a cash game player can reasonably expect to win most of their sessions with profit, the opposite is true for the tournaments player. Even the best poker players end most of their tournaments without even winning enough money to cover the entrance fee. Big wins are what makes it up for them and big wins come rarely. If you want to be successful, then this is what you have to accept. Being too hard on yourself for not winning a tournament will not do any good and you may pretty soon find yourself wondering why you are still playing the game. This can happen, if you don’t know the simple mathematics behind this. So now you know.